Friday, December 17, 2010

Mathhammer: Predator vs. Dark Eldar


So I have a friend of mine that has picked up the new DE book and is making himself an army. He has already warned me that he is looking at bringing 10 or so raider/ravagers. So I got to thinking about what I'm goinng to use to get rid of them. I'll probably take some Long Fangs, but I'm afraid they are going to die quickly to poisoned attacks wyches, so I was considering a Predator, but which one? People have been talking about the destructor as it has so many shots, but then other people have been saying the Autocannon LasCannon is the way to go. So I pulled out my excell spred sheet to check it out.

Before we get too far into this, what I am looking for is a way to stop those Raider/Ravagers from transporting the choppy troops around. I figure if I can knock them down, the dudes will have to jump out and I think I have a pretty good chance to take them on once they are out of the their rides, so for this exercise, I am considering immobiliztion or better a success.

Any shooting on the pred has a 2/3 chance of hitting and a 1/3 chance of missing. If we start with the TLLC, when you shoot you either hit, miss then hit, or miss twice. So it turns out you have almost a 90% chance of hitting.

Now any weapon is going to have a 1/6 chance of glancing any vehicle (assuming it is even possible to glance the vehicle). With the Raider/Ravager being opened topped, there is a 1/3 chance of getting an immobilized or better result. Lastly comes that damn flicker field. Now its probable that hes not going to put a flicker field on all 10 of his skimmers, but we'll just keep it in to keep all things equal. So there is a 1/3 chance of the flicker field causing me to miss, so I have a 2/3 chance of killing it, which gives me a total chance of "killing" through a glance of 1/27.

With a LC (twin linked or not) I have a 5/6 chance to penetrate, and once I penetrate I have a 2/3 chance of getting an imobilized or better result. Throwing in the flicker field, a LasCannon has about a 37% chance of killing the skimmer once it has hit.

So a TLLC has about 36% chance of killing a Raider/Ravager through either glancing or penetrating.

The autocannon is a bit more difficult. It shoots twice, but is not twin linked. So I can either hit once, or twice. If I hit twice, there are two ways it can happen, I can hit with the first shot, or with the second shot. So the autocannon has 4/9 chance of hitting with two shots, and, oddly enough, a 4/9 chance of hittinng with just one. As with the TLLC, the AC has a 1/27 chance of a glance-kill, and a 2/9 chance of killing through a penetrating kill. Once we have that we look at the different ways it can kill the skimmer. It can land 2 shots, and get a pen-kill on the first one, or a glance-kill on the first one, or it can miss the first shot all together, and either penetrate or glance to kill on the second shot. In the end the autocannon has about a 27% chance to kill a Raider/Ravager.

On to sponsons. If you slap the lascannons on, it turns out each lascannon has a little bit over 27% chance to kill the skimmer.

The heavy bolters are like the autocannon in their complexity, but it turns out each HB has about a 17.5% chance to kill the skimmer.

So it looks like the Preditor Anihilator has just about a 76% chance of killing the Raider/Ravager.

The Predator Destructor has about a 55% chance of killing a Raider/Ravager.

The TLLC/HB Pred has about a 63% chance, and the Auto/LC Pred has a 68.5% chance of making a kill.

The problem now is that the Preditor Anihilator has a 76% chance of killing one of the skimmers and it costs 165 points, and with the amount of dark lances 10 Raider/Ravagers are carrying, what are the chances it will hang around after the first turn?

OK, this mental exercise is done, I'm not even going to contemplate what a 4+ cover save does to the numbers.

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